Winchester's Q4 2025 earnings nearly evaporated, dropping from $42 million to just $600,000 compared to the same quarter a year earlier. That's not a typo.

A $41 million quarterly collapse is the kind of number that forces decisions — and those decisions don't stay inside the boardroom. They end up on the shelf tag at your local gun shop. When a manufacturer this size bleeds that badly, price increases aren't a maybe, they're already written.

The post-COVID ammo surge created a glut of inventory in the distribution channel. Manufacturers like Winchester cut prices to keep product moving. That worked until the raw material costs made it unsustainable.

This is exactly what happened. Retailers were sitting on pandemic-era stock and discounting to move it — which felt great if you were buying, but it was masking what copper, brass, and propellant were actually costing. That math is done now. The window where you could grab quality centerfire at lower-than-normal prices is closing, and it's not coming back soon.

If you reload, watch brass and propellant pricing closely — those inputs are under the same cost pressure hitting Winchester.

The reloading bench doesn't insulate you from this — it just delays it. Powder and brass are sourced from the same markets. If you've been putting off stocking up on Varget or H4350, or you're low on brass for a caliber you shoot heavy, now is a better time to act than six months from now.

Curious where everyone's at on this — have you already noticed price creep at your local shops or distributor, and are you adjusting your buying habits heading into 2026?

Read the full article in The Handbook → | By Steve Duskett