Article Info
Gun Sales Up 3.5% in February

| Scope | |
|---|---|
| Impact | national |
| Key Entities | |
| Compiles and adjusts NICS data to better reflect actual firearm sales | NSSF |
| Administers the National Instant Criminal Background Check System | FBI NICS |
| Tracks concealed carry permit trends nationwide | Crime Prevention Research Center |
| What It Means | |
| |
| Timeline | |
| February 28, 2026 | NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,265,320 recorded for February 2026 |
| March 2026 | NSSF releases February 2026 background check analysis showing 3.5% sales increase |
Gun Sales Up 3.5% in February
NICS background checks fell 13.5%—but that number is misleading, and the real sales picture is healthier than the headline suggests
From The Boise Gun Club Handbook
Gun sales ticked up 3.5% in February 2026—and the headline number that says otherwise is counting the wrong thing.
Driving the news: NSSF-adjusted NICS data shows 1,265,320 firearm sales in February 2026, up 3.5% from the same month last year. The unadjusted FBI figure showed a 13.5% drop—but that number includes permit checks and permit rechecks that have nothing to do with a gun changing hands.
By the numbers:
- Total NICS checks fell by roughly 302,000 from February 2025 to February 2026
- The permit recheck category alone dropped ~345,000 checks over that same period
- That single category accounts for more than the entire reported decline
The math is straightforward: the "drop" in NICS isn't people buying fewer guns. It's fewer states running routine permit rechecks through the system.
Reality check: Constitutional Carry is now the law in 29 states. When residents don't need a permit to carry, they don't need permit renewals—and those renewals don't generate NICS checks. That's a win for gun owners that shows up as a statistical "decline" in background check data. Don't let that confuse you.
The NSSF-adjusted figure is the one worth watching. It's been a reliable proxy for actual firearm sales for 27 years, climbing steadily since 2000. U.S. gun sales have grown roughly 108% over that period, compared to about 22% population growth. More Americans own guns than ever, and that trend hasn't reversed.
As for why sales are up right now, nobody has a clean answer. The economy has improved some. Foreign policy has been active. And there's a credible argument that some left-leaning buyers who used to dismiss the Second Amendment are quietly reconsidering—and showing up at gun stores.
The bottom line: When you see a headline screaming about a 13.5% NICS drop, remember what's actually being counted. The adjusted number—the one that tracks real sales—is up. The firearm market isn't contracting.
- Phils Custom Handloads(Swartz Creek, MI)
- Gls Guns(Sumner, IA)
- J & L Gunsmithing(Chesapeake, VA)
- Oliver Firearms(Spartanburg, SC)
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