Gun Sales Up 3.5% in February

Gun sales ticked up 3.5% in February 2026—and the headline number that says otherwise is counting the wrong thing.

Driving the news: NSSF-adjusted NICS data shows 1,265,320 firearm sales in February 2026, up 3.5% from the same month last year. The unadjusted FBI figure showed a 13.5% drop—but that number includes permit checks and permit rechecks that have nothing to do with a gun changing hands.

By the numbers:

• Total NICS checks fell by roughly 302,000 from February 2025 to February 2026
• The permit recheck category alone dropped ~345,000 checks over that same period
• That single category accounts for more than the entire reported decline

The math is straightforward: the "drop" in NICS isn't people buying fewer guns. It's fewer states running routine permit rechecks through the system.

Reality check: Constitutional Carry is now the law in 29 states. When residents don't need a permit to carry, they don't need permit renewals—and those renewals don't generate NICS checks. That's a win for gun owners that shows up as a statistical "decline" in background check data. Don't let that confuse you.

The NSSF-adjusted figure is the one worth watching. It's been a reliable proxy for actual firearm sales for 27 years, climbing steadily since 2000. U.S. gun sales have grown roughly 108% over that period, compared to about 22% population growth. More Americans own guns than ever, and that trend hasn't reversed.

As for why sales are up right now, nobody has a clean answer. The economy has improved some. Foreign policy has been active. And there's a credible argument that some left-leaning buyers who used to dismiss the Second Amendment are quietly reconsidering—and showing up at gun stores.

The bottom line: When you see a headline screaming about a 13.5% NICS drop, remember what's actually being counted. The adjusted number—the one that tracks real sales—is up. The firearm market isn't contracting.