Virginia Bans AR-15s, Legal Fight Begins

Virginia is about to ban the sale and purchase of AR-15s and dozens of similar rifles, along with magazines over 15 rounds.

State of play: Senate Bill 749 awaits Gov. Abigail Spanberger's signature—which she's expected to provide. Once signed, importing, selling, or buying any semi-automatic centerfire rifle with a detachable magazine plus any one of five cosmetic features becomes illegal in Virginia. Possession prior to July 1 is grandfathered.

Catch up quick:

• The five banned features: threaded barrel, flash suppressor, thumbhole or pistol grip, forward grip, folding/telescoping/collapsible stock
• None of those features change caliber, rate of fire, or muzzle velocity
• Magazines over 15 rounds are also banned—roughly 750 million such magazines are already in circulation in the U.S.

Reality check: The features Virginia is targeting don't make a rifle more lethal. A threaded barrel doesn't change what the bullet does. A folding stock doesn't change the cartridge. The same rifle, functionally identical, is legal without them. The logic that any one of these cosmetic attributes transforms a hunting or sporting rifle into a "weapon of war" doesn't hold up to scrutiny—and that logical gap is exactly where the legal challenge will focus.

By the numbers:

• 32 million+ rifles meeting common "assault weapon" definitions have been sold in the U.S. since 1990
• Rifles of all types accounted for 4% of gun homicides in 2023 where the firearm type was known
• Handguns were used in 54% of mass shootings since 1982—including the Virginia Tech attack the bill's sponsor specifically cited as motivation

The legal question: Heller (2008) established that the Second Amendment protects arms "in common use" for lawful purposes. Thirty-two million rifles in civilian hands is about as "common use" as it gets. The Virginia Citizens Defense League already has counsel and has been preparing litigation since December. Philip Van Cleave, VCDL's president, is direct about the end game: "There's no way they're going to sustain this at the Supreme Court level."

That confidence isn't unfounded. Three sitting Supreme Court justices—Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch—dissented last year when the Court declined to hear a challenge to Maryland's similar ban. Justice Kavanaugh, while not joining the dissent, wrote that AR-15 owners have "a strong argument" under Heller and said the Court "should and presumably will address the AR-15 issue soon."

Yes, but: The circuit courts are split. The 1st, 4th, and 7th Circuits have upheld "assault weapon" bans under Bruen's historical tradition test. Several district court judges have gone the other way. Virginia falls in the 4th Circuit—the same circuit that upheld Maryland's ban. That means VCDL is likely heading uphill on the first several rounds of litigation.

What to watch: The Trump DOJ has already filed its own lawsuit challenging Washington D.C.'s assault weapon ban, giving the Supreme Court another potential vehicle to settle this question. Kavanaugh telegraphed the Court is waiting for more circuit opinions before stepping in. Virginia's ban, and the litigation it generates, adds to that pile.

The bottom line: Virginia's law is constitutionally questionable by any honest reading of Heller and Bruen—but it's going into effect anyway, and the court fight will take years. If you own these rifles in Virginia, you can keep them. If you were planning to buy one there, that window is closing fast.