Canada's Gun Ban Stalls Again

Canada's sweeping gun ban is collecting dust instead of rifles, and the Liberal government just blinked again.

What's new: Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree announced this week that Canada's amnesty order—protecting owners of roughly 2,500 banned makes and models from criminal prosecution—will remain in place beyond its October 30 expiration, pending a ruling from the Canadian Supreme Court.

"While you know we would have preferred to have the amnesty in place for October … we have to respect the Supreme Court and their ability as the final arbiter of Canadian law to weigh in, and that's what we're doing today." — Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree

Catch up quick: The ban has been a slow-motion collapse since Trudeau first announced it in May 2020.

• The government has collected roughly half the firearms it projected
• A pilot collection event in Nova Scotia last fall pulled in 25 guns—against a target of 200
• The amnesty has already been extended multiple times since its original April 2022 deadline
• Several provinces and many local police forces have refused to participate in the confiscation program

Between the lines: The Supreme Court hearing gives Ottawa a clean political excuse, but the math was already ugly before any court intervened. When your flagship gun collection effort yields 25 firearms in an entire province, you don't have an enforcement problem—you have a compliance problem. Canadian gun owners, by a wide margin, simply aren't participating.

The intrigue: Alberta holds a referendum on provincial separation on October 19. Had the Liberals let the amnesty lapse on schedule, the federal government would have begun prosecuting non-compliant gun owners roughly the same week Albertans were voting on whether to stay in Canada at all. Separation polling sits around 20%—that number moves when the feds are actively arresting your neighbors.

What to watch: The Canadian Supreme Court's ruling isn't expected until sometime in 2026. If the court strikes down the ban, Ottawa gets to blame the judiciary for a program that was already failing on its own terms. If the court upholds it, the government still faces a compliance crisis with no obvious enforcement mechanism and provinces actively refusing to help.