Poll: Gun Ban Support Crumbling

A new Marquette Law School poll shows the only demographic still solidly backing so-called assault weapon bans is voters 60 and older—everyone else is trending the other way.

By the numbers: Marquette asked whether the Supreme Court should rule that Americans have a constitutional right to own AR-15s and other semi-auto rifles. Overall, 52 percent said no, 48 percent said yes—inside the margin of error once you break it down by age.

• 18-29: 54 percent want the bans struck down
• 30-44: 57 percent want the bans struck down
• 45-59: 49 percent want the bans struck down
• 60+: 64 percent want the bans upheld

Every generation under 60 either favors striking the bans outright or sits within statistical noise of a tie. The pro-ban majority nationally exists almost entirely because of one age bracket.

The real divide isn't age—it's sex. Men favor striking down the bans 59-41. Women oppose striking them down 63-37. That gap dwarfs anything found between generations, and it explains why gun control messaging is almost universally fronted by women's groups. It also explains why women-led Second Amendment organizations—Women for Gun Rights, A Girl and a Gun, and similar outfits—are treated as a genuine threat by the gun control lobby. They're chipping away at the demographic gun control depends on most.

Church attendance moves the needle too. Among voters who attend services once or twice a month, 66 percent want the bans struck down. Weekly attendees aren't far behind at 62 percent. Meanwhile, support for bans rises with education level—only bachelor's and post-graduate degree holders show majority support for keeping them. Make of that what you will.

Yes, but: registration status flips the usual assumptions. Voters not registered to vote favor bans 60 percent, while registered voters split closer to even at 49 percent. The people least likely to actually vote on this issue are the ones most supportive of restricting it.

The intrigue: given decades of media coverage branding AR-15s as "weapons of war" and "nobody needs one," a near-even national split is remarkable. That messaging campaign has had years to work. It's produced a bare majority propped up almost entirely by voters over 60.

The same poll found broad appetite for reforming the Court itself—89 percent want a stricter ethics code for justices, 79 percent want term limits, and 53 percent even back expanding the bench, though that last one drew the most disagreement.

The bottom line: polling won't decide Viramontes when the Supreme Court hears it later this year, but it shows the ground shifting under gun control's feet. The coalition defending "assault weapon" bans is aging out, and the next generation isn't buying the argument.