Canada's Gun Buyback Lands With Thud

Canada's federal gun buyback program closed its declaration window March 31, and the numbers are embarrassing for Ottawa — particularly in the North.

Catch up quick:

• Since 2020, the federal government has banned roughly 2,500 "assault-style" firearms, citing their unsuitability for hunting or sport.
• Owners had until March 31 to declare prohibited firearms and collect compensation.
• The hard deadline is now October 30 — declare, dispose, or deactivate, or face criminal liability.

By the numbers: Ottawa budgeted for 136,000 declarations nationwide and set aside nearly $250 million. Fewer than half that many — 67,000 — were declared across all of Canada. The Northwest Territories, where per-capita firearm ownership runs higher than most provinces, turned in 81 guns.

"I would say it was ineffective." — Jonathan Rocheleau, president of the Yellowknife Shooting Club

The enforcement gap: Here's where it gets interesting. The N.W.T. Justice Minister confirmed territorial RCMP won't participate in the program. His office says RCMP resources are already stretched thin on core policing responsibilities. So who enforces the October 30 deadline in the territory? Nobody has answered that question. The Justice Minister declined an interview. Public Safety Canada didn't respond to CBC before deadline. The RCMP's national headquarters confirmed it maintains records of who possessed now-prohibited firearms — but knowing who has them and actually collecting them are two different problems.

Reality check: Noah Schwartz, a political science professor who literally wrote the book on Canadian gun culture, puts it plainly: 81 declarations is a small number when firearm ownership in the North runs proportionally higher than the rest of the country. Public Safety Canada estimates 180,000 banned firearms exist nationwide. At the current declaration rate, a significant majority are staying put — and the government may be quietly fine with that outcome.

Between the lines: Schwartz's read on the Carney government's posture is worth noting. He believes they inherited this program, see the political cost of reversing it as too high, and mostly want it to disappear from the news cycle. That's not a policy position — that's an exit strategy.

What to watch: Canada's Supreme Court has agreed to hear constitutional challenges to the underlying firearms ban. Whatever enforcement drama plays out this fall could become moot depending on that ruling. The October 30 criminal liability deadline is the immediate pressure point, but the legal challenge is the longer story.