Virginia Bans AR-15s: What's Next

Virginia's governor is expected to sign a law banning the sale and purchase of AR-15s and dozens of other common semi-automatic rifles, effective July 1.

State of play: Senate Bill 749 makes it illegal to import, sell, or buy any semi-automatic centerfire rifle with a detachable magazine and at least one of five features — threaded barrel, flash suppressor, pistol grip, forward grip, or folding/collapsible stock. Magazines over 15 rounds are also prohibited. Firearms already owned before July 1 are exempt.

Catch up quick:

• Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) has said she supports the bill and is expected to sign it
• The bill's sponsor, state Sen. Saddam Salim, cites the 2007 Virginia Tech shooting as motivation — a massacre committed with handguns, not rifles
• Virginia Citizens Defense League says it already has an attorney and has been preparing a legal challenge since December

Reality check: The features this law targets don't change what a rifle does. A threaded barrel doesn't change muzzle velocity. A folding stock doesn't increase rate of fire. With or without these features, the rifle fires the same round at the same speed. The bill identifies rifles by how they look, not how they function.

By the numbers:

• 32 million-plus rifles meeting the "assault weapon" definition have been sold in the U.S. since 1990
• Rifles of all types accounted for 4% of gun homicides in 2023 where firearm type was specified — handguns accounted for 53%
• Handguns are used in 54% of all U.S. mass shootings since 1982
• Roughly 750 million of the ~1 billion magazines sold since 1990 hold more than 10 rounds

The legal question: Under Heller (2008) and Bruen (2022), the Second Amendment protects arms "in common use" for lawful purposes. With over 32 million of these rifles in civilian hands, that threshold isn't close. Several federal district courts have already struck down similar bans under Bruen. The 1st, 4th, and 7th Circuits have gone the other way — but the circuit split is real and growing.

"Given that millions of Americans own AR-15s and that a significant majority of the States allow possession of those rifles, petitioners have a strong argument that AR-15s are in 'common use' by law-abiding citizens and therefore are protected by the Second Amendment under Heller." — Justice Brett Kavanaugh, dissenting from cert denial in Bianchi v. Brown (Maryland AR-15 ban)

Three sitting justices — Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch — dissented when the Court declined to hear the Maryland challenge, with Thomas writing that it was "difficult to see" how such a ban survives Bruen. Kavanaugh didn't join them but signaled the Court needs to resolve the circuit split soon — "in the next Term or two."

What to watch: The Trump DOJ has also sued Washington D.C. over its own "assault weapon" ban, which could give the Supreme Court a cleaner vehicle to take up the AR-15 question directly. Virginia's new law, once challenged, adds another case to that pipeline. The legal pressure on these bans is building from multiple directions simultaneously.

The bottom line: Virginia's law is constitutionally shakier than its supporters want to admit, and the gun rights organizations know it. This one ends up in federal court — the only question is how long before it reaches the justices who've already telegraphed their skepticism.